Thursday, June 25, 2009

TEXAS RANKS FIRST FOR BUSINESS

TEXAS (Austin Business Journal) – Texas stands out as the top state for business, according to Directorship magazine.

Texas "has a pro-business tax climate that ranks third, a low cost of living, a relatively solid economy and a litigation environment that ranks tenth on our list," the magazine reported. "Texas also ranks first in the number of Fortune 500 companies located there."

Major corporate relocations and expansions such as Comerica's move to Dallas and Caterpillar's new plant in Seguin were highlighted as reasons for Texas' ranking.

Directorship evaluated states' overall economies, tax climates, cost of living and education to determine rankings

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Home Maintenance Tip -

Your washer and dryer are designed to be simple to maintain, and there are a few things you can do that will prolong the life of the machines and reduce service calls.
Avoid overloading the washer - an overloaded washer strains the motor and transmission, shortening their lives.
Once a month, remove and clean intake screens where water-supply hoses enter the washing machine, and check water-supply hoses for splits, cracks, or bulges.
Once a year, disconnect your dryer from the vent hose and wall, and thoroughly vacuum and clean the lint pipe to improve your drying efficiency and remove potentially flammable lint buildup.
Once a year disconnect the washer and dryer to clean underneath and check for any small leaks or hidden maintenance problems.

Monday, June 22, 2009

TEXAS STILL BUYER'S MARKET

TEXAS (Real Estate Center, The Herald-Zeitung) – Despite rising foreclosure rates in the United States (now nearly 32 percent), the rate in Texas is down 14 percent since last year.

Jim Gaines, research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, said the Texas housing market is doing very well compared with the rest of the nation.

"We're being compared to large, high-growth states like Florida, New York, California and Illinois, and our housing market is in much better shape. This is partly because about four or five years ago, we didn't have the big run-up in prices that many of those states had," Gaines said.

Texas also benefits from a lack of overbuilding, which often creates an excess of inventory to drive down home prices.

Affordable homes, low mortgage and interest rates, and first-time homebuyer tax credits also make this an ideal time to buy a home, according to Gaines.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

TEXAS QUICK TO BOUNCE BACK FROM RECESSION, FORBES SAYS

WASHINGTON (Forbes) – Several Texas cities are poised for a quick recovery from the national recession, according to Forbes.

Austin–Round Rock ranked first on the magazine’s recent list of ten cities most likely to bounce back quickly.

Meanwhile, San Antonio ranked fifth, Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington seventh and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission ninth.

To compile its list, Forbes looked at estimates from Moody's Economy.com of the projected gross domestic product of metropolitan areas across the United States, as well as unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and home prices, incomes and affordability data from the National Association of Home Builders.

Forbes also put together a list of ten worst cities for recession recovery. No Texas cities made that list.

Monday, June 15, 2009

This Economy Wants to Recover

In his recent Croesus Chronicles for Forbes, Robert Lenzner outlined several economic points:

"The bear market ended March 9, and the end of the worst recession since the 1930s, or is it the mid 1970s, is plainly in sight."

"About $120 billion has been pulled out of global market funds since mid-March;"

'Yet money market assets are still equal to 50% of the S&P 500 market cap...Since 1990, money market assets have averaged about 20% of the S&P 500 market cap. This is a huge potential buying power.

While no one is certain that a new bull market has begun, we can point to some telling signs: "Stocks broke higher on June 1 even though the yield on 30-yeard Treasuries climbed back above 4.5%...This is what the long bond yielded in August of 2008. Just before the meltdown in credit markets during the fall of 2008."

"Credit markets are healing, as spreads have fallen considerably."

"Corporations are able to raise tens of billions in the short-term debt market."

"The yield curve, the difference in yield between short-term and long-term securities, usually widens in advance of an economic recovery, and it has done so."

"Stocks also rose spectacularly despite the bankruptcy of General Motors and the continuing loss of jobs in the automobile industry. Bad news doesn't seem to be rocking the market like it did a few months ago."

"Earnings yields on equities still remain comfortably above the yield on 10-year Treasuries and should have the ability to absorb higher interest rates driven by economic recovery."

'The US manufacturing institute for Supply Management index rose to 42.8 in May, which usually signals that gross domestic is expanding rather the faltering."

'Housing, the genesis of the crisis, is showing signs of stabilization and even amelioration. Pending sales were up 6.7% in April, even if prices are still in the tank.'

'Even automobile sales improved in May to an annualized 10 million vehicle level.'

'There has also been a mini-bull market going on in commodities that has been mightier than the one for stocks. This outperformance by commodities is another leading indicator of an economy about to turn the corner.'

And lastly, "Another factor that helps the Dow is the replacement of two stocks with no earning--General Motors and Citigroup--with Travelers and Cisco."

"Looks to Croesus that this market wants to rise, deflation or inflation both be damned!"

Friday, June 12, 2009

Forecasting the Floor

While experts run the gamut in their outlook for real estate, sound business
practices supercede futile attempts to time the market.
Are we there yet?


With the summer vacation season in full swing, most of us in real estate are
asking our own version of this signature refrain of the family road trip.
In our case, it’s a question of, ‘Have we hit the floor?’
When can we start looking forward to shrinking inventories, stable prices and an
upward trend in the number of transactions?


While much of the media is still charging ahead with dire forecasts for real estate,
a recent spate of experts are claiming that a housing-market recovery is imminent.
Even though this is the news that we’ve been waiting to hear, we need to take it
with a grain of salt. As always, the real story is much more complicated and lies
somewhere within the spectrum of the doom and gloom and the upbeat projections.
Many of you have recently asked me for my thoughts on a recent Wall Street
Journal commentary entitled, “The Housing Crisis is Over” by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux,
managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York. When I
read the claim in the article that, “It is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of
the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now,” I suspected
that there might be a need to look beneath the surface of his claims.


Noting that new home sales are down 63 percent and housing starts have fallen by
more than 50 percent from their July 2005 peak; and that housing starts in 2008 will hit
their lowest level ever, Moulle-Berteaux emphasized that the same factor that sparked the
housing decline is soon to reverse it: affordability.


He explained that “by 2005 and 2006, the average monthly income required to
service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased had reached 25 percent.
For first-time homebuyers that figure had climbed to 37 percent.”
But since then, according to Moulle-Berteaux, “home prices have fallen 10
percent to 15 percent, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and
interest rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs.” Moulle-Berteaux’s
conclusion: “… homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of
times in the 1990s – down to 19 percent of income for the average home buyer and 31
percent of income for the first-time home buyer.”


Affordability in March 2008, is actually at 19 percent, back to where it was in
early 2004, but one of the key factors affecting affordability in the current market is low
interest rates. If inflation increases, in the near future, interest rates could likely go up,
which could counter the current direction in affordability.


Another factor that Moulle-Berteaux points to as a sign of recovery is the recent
decline in new home inventories – from a high of 598,000 in July 2006, to 482,000 at the
end of March 2008. Conceding that the current new- home inventory is still at a 25-year
high, and equivalent to an 11- month supply, he argues that current levels are similar to
those seen at the end of previous housing market downturns in 1974, 1982 and 1991,
which in all three instances were followed by a slowing in home-price declines within the
next six months. As new home construction begins to undershoot new home sales, which
Moulle-Berteaux anticipates is soon to occur at a rate of 50,000 to 100,000 annually, he

contends that inventories will drop to 400,000 – or a seven month’s supply – by the end
of 2008.


While he makes a seemingly compelling argument, we should be careful not to
accept such analyses at face value. Moulle-Berteaux does not always paint the entire
picture and omits critical informa tion, such as the fact that existing home inventories –
which account for a far greater portion of the housing market – are at their highest levels
since September 1981.


That being said, Moulle-Berteaux is clearly not alone in his assertions that the
housing market is showing signs of a rebound. Among those noting positive trends is
Professor Karl Case of Wellesley College in Wellesley, Mass. Case looked at the past
three housing downturns in 1991, 1982 and 1975, and noticed that the market started to
clear when housing starts dropped below the 1 million mark – as they did in March of
2008.


At the same time, the National Association of REALTORS® sees signs of
recovery for reasons that include:
· Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have announced plans to increase funds available
for home loans.
· The use of FHA loans is on the rise.
· Pending home sales are on the rise in areas where affordability has increased.


In a further effort to stimulate the housing market, Fannie Mae announced that
starting June 1, 2008, it will accept down payments as low as 3 percent for single-family,
primary residences on loans it purchases.


But despite its initiatives to jumpstart real estate, Fannie Mae is not anticipating a
housing recovery to take hold until 2010. Addressing business journalists this Spring,
Daniel Mudd, president and chief executive of Fannie May said, “Forecasting the bottom
of the housing slump is a tricky business, with the many conflicting predictions by
economists as proof.” We couldn’t agree more.


Clearly, the housing market is a complicated business that does not rise and fall
based on one or two factors. And even though real estate is cyclical, we need to avoid the
expectation that prescribed patterns or trends are necessarily at play. The current
downturn is quite different from the housing recessions of 1991, 1982 and 1975 – due
primarily to the tightening of the credit markets following the fallout of the sub-prime
loan market, as well as the historically high rates of foreclosures. A striking similarity,
however, between the current housing market and previous downturns in the housing
cycle is the dramatic increase in oil prices.


It’s perfectly understandable to want to find the definitive forecast for residential
real estate and to seek a return to the heydays of housing, but we have little to gain in
latching on to any particular forecast or trying to time the market. We have everything to
gain, however, by managing expenses in order to survive, doing whatever it takes to
generate the leads that we need to thrive, seizing opportunities to build our share of the
current market, and emphasizing to clients who are trying to sort through many
conflicting messages that real estate is essentially a local business.
What’s happening within your local markets is all that’s relevant.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Are We in a Recession?

NAR recently released their observations on the economy and the housing
market. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of NAR stated that we are not in a
recession and speculated that home prices in certain areas such as Miami, Las
Vegas and Phoenix could go up as much as 50% over the next five years.

Here are our thoughts on this matter:
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP increased at an annual rate
of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2008. GDP is estimated quarterly. This is an
"advance" estimate and subject to further revision. A more complete estimate
will be released at the end of May.

According to Bernard Baumohl, 3-3.5% annual growth rate is considered the
pace the economy has to grow for people to feel prosperous. GDP figures are
released quarterly and lag behind more current monthly indicators. Even though
GDP figures are a little dated, historically, GDP growth rates have proven to be
quite different than what the market expects.

According to BEA, the last quarter’s increase in GDP is attributed to:
• Personal consumption expenditures for services
• Private inventory investment
• Exports of goods and services
• Government spending

This offsets the negative contributions due to:
• Residential fixed investment (construction of homes, etc)
• Personal consumption expenditures for durable goods

So technically speaking (according to the advance data estimates), we are NOT
in a recession. If the upcoming revision of the GDP shows a decline, we still have
to have two consecutive quarterly declines in GDP for a recession. Regarding
NAR’s forecast for home prices, our previous research indicates NAR has been
overly optimistic with their predictions in the past. We suspect that this may be
true in this instance as well.

Even if we are not technically in a recession, the market seems to think
otherwise. A survey of 52 economists, conducted in April found that 67% of them
believe we ARE in a recession. On April 30th, an NBC/WSJ consumer poll found
that 81% of Americans agree. The pros and public alike – believe we are in a
recession. Wisdom of the crowd, perception is reality, what you see is what you
get. If it’s true for you, it’s true – any way you want to posture it. We’re saying that
if it walks like one and talks like one, it is one, and we might need to face that
reality.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

It May Be Time to Think About Buying a House

By RON LIEBER
Published: December 5, 2008 in the NY Times

Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.

Then, everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for those who can qualify for a mortgage.

Unfortunately, we do not know when this golden age will begin, because we will be able to identify a bottom to the housing market only with the benefit of hindsight. But as it does with the stock market, the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic.
That moment is certainly getting closer. Housing prices have fallen drastically from their peak levels in many areas of the country. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are already close to 5.5 percent, and this week there were suggestions that the federal government might try to drive them down to 4.5 percent, a truly incredible figure to be able to lock in for three decades.
Meanwhile, first-time home buyers have the same advantage they have always had, which is that they do not have to sell their old place before buying a new one. That is an added advantage in areas where many available houses simply are not moving, because the people trying to sell them will not be bidding against you.

If you’re hoping for a recovery in the housing market, you ought to be cheering on the first-time home buyers. When they purchase homes, their sellers are free to move on or move up, stimulating further sales.

But if you are a potential first-time buyer yourself, or lending or giving the down payment to one, you are probably as frightened as you are tempted by all the “For Sale” signs that have become “On Sale” signs. So let’s quickly review some of the still-grim pricing data in certain areas — and consider the reasoning offered up by first-time buyers who have forged ahead anyhow.

As is always the case with real estate, much depends on location. One study, “The Changing Prospects for Building Home Equity,” tries to predict where today’s first-time buyers in the 100 biggest metropolitan areas may actually have less home equity by 2012 as a result of continued price declines. The verdict was that buyers in 33 of the markets could see a decline by 2012, including potential six-figure drops on an average home in the New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle metropolitan areas.

This is obviously scary. (I’ve linked to the study, a joint effort of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the National Low Income Housing Coalition, from the version of this article at nytimes.com/yourmoney.) It’s worth noting, however, that these predictions came before the government made its most recent move to reduce borrowing costs.

Also, the price projections in the study are based, in part, on the fact that the ratio of purchase prices to annual rents is still higher in many areas than the historical average, which is roughly 15 times rents. While past figures may well have some predictive value, I have never been convinced that first-time buyers compare a home that they could own and one that they would rent in purely or even primarily economic terms.

When Jaime and Michael Proman moved this fall to Minneapolis, his hometown, from New York City, they craved a different sort of life after two years together in a 450-square-foot studio apartment. “We didn’t want a sterile apartment feel,” said Mr. Proman, who is 28 (his wife is 26). “We wanted something that was permanent and very much a reflection of us.”
The fact is, in many parts of the country there are few if any attractive rentals for people looking to put down roots and enjoy the sort of amenities they may spot on cable television home improvement shows. Comparing a rental with a place that you may own seems almost pointless in these situations, especially for those who are now grown up enough to want to make their own decisions about décor without consulting the landlord.

Still, for anyone feeling the urge to buy, a number of practical considerations have changed in the last year or two. The basics are back, like spending no more than 28 percent of your pretax income on mortgage payments, taxes and insurance. Even if a lender does not hold you to this when you go in for preapproval, you should hold yourself to it.

You will also want to start now on any project to improve your credit score because it may take several months to get it above the 720 level that qualifies you for many of the best mortgage rates.

John Ulzheimer, president of consumer education for credit.com, a consumer credit information and application site, suggests starting to pay down and put away credit cards months before you apply for a loan. That is because the credit scoring system could penalize you if you use a lot of credit each month, even if you always pay in full. Also, check your three credit reports (it’s free) at annualcreditreport.com and dispute errors.

While no one can easily predict the likelihood of losing a job, Friday’s startling unemployment figures suggest the need for caution if you think you might be vulnerable. A. C. Panella, who teaches communications at Pasadena City College in California, waited until she had a tenure-track job before buying a home in the Highland Park section of Los Angeles with her partner, Amy Goldman, a lawyer for a nonprofit organization. “We could afford the mortgage payment on one salary, were something to come up,” Ms. Panella, 31, said. “It’s really about being able to stay within our means.”

For many first-time home buyers, that philosophy stretches to the down payment, too. Ms. Panella and her partner put down 20 percent when they bought their home in September, as did the Promans when they bought their home in the Lowry Hill neighborhood of Minneapolis.
Alison Nowak, 29, put just 3 percent down on a Federal Housing Administration-backed loan last month when she and her partner, Lacey Mamak, bought a $149,900, 800-square-foot home several miles south of where the Promans live. “Anything that is an opportunity also has a bit of risk,” she said. Her house was in foreclosure before a plumber bought it and fixed it up. “One way we mitigated it was that we bought a really tiny house in a very good neighborhood.”
One other strategy might be to buy new instead of used. Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist for the research firm High Frequency Economics, says he believes that a steep drop-off in inventory of new homes is coming soon, thanks to a rapid decrease in home builder activity.

Since prices generally soften in the winter, it may make sense to start looking seriously once the mercury bottoms out. “If you look at new developments next spring, you may not have the choice you thought you would have or be in the bargaining position you thought you would be,” Mr. Shepherdson said. Also, if you wait after June 30, you will miss out on a $7,500 federal tax credit for income-eligible first-time home buyers that works like an interest-free loan.
Finally, allow yourself to consider how it would feel if you bought and then prices dropped another 10 or 15 percent. It might not bother you if you plan to stick around. Plenty of people seem to be making a longer commitment to their homes. According to a survey that the National Association of Realtors released last month, typical first-time buyers plan to stay in their home 10 years, up from 7 last year.

Perhaps people are more aware that they will not be able to build equity as rapidly as others did in the real estate boom. Or they simply have more confidence in hard, hometown assets now than in other markets.

“We wouldn’t let another decline bother us,” said Michael Proman. “You can never time a bottom. This is a long-term investment for us, and it truly is the best investment we have in our portfolio right now.”